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Comprehensive Economic and Public Finance Projects

COVID-19 Impact on the San Diego Region Economy

SANDAG is monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential impact on the San Diego economy and TransNet sales tax revenue. Given the fluidity of the situation, the SANDAG Data Science and Analytics Department has developed a dynamic model to forecast 40 scenarios based on an array of assumptions. This model will continue to be refined as new data become available. The forecast provides the most informed estimates of potential impact from specific factors, such as the length of disruption and the severity of the COVID-19 impact on the economy.

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COVID-19 impact on 2020 and 2021 San Diego Region Taxable Retail Sales – As of April 3, 2020

Figure 1 below shows the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on taxable sales in the coming months: The dark blue bars represent average collections for the months of January and February 2020. The light blue bars represent pre-COVID-19 anticipated retail sales. The red bars show the monthly impact of a two-month disruption to taxable retail sales. The orange bars show the monthly impact of a three-month disruption to taxable retail sales.


  

TransNet Revenue Forecast – As of April 3, 2020 

The table below shows 40 TransNet revenue forecast scenarios SANDAG produced based on assumptions outlined in the full report. SANDAG forecasts include the length, depth (severity), and recovery from the disruption. Probabilities are assigned to each scenario based on the most reliable empirical data (information that is known now as fact, and not speculation or supposition). The scenarios in green are regarded as more likely to occur, followed by those in yellow. Scenarios in black text are considered possibilities if the disruption continues into the summer; however, currently no empirical data suggests that the stay-at-home order, would persist for five or more months. Scenarios with grayed out text are not considered probable at this time.


Contact

Data and reports on this page are researched, written, and updated by SANDAG through the Data Science and Analytics Department and Office of the Chief Economist.

For more information, contact SANDAG Public Information Officer Jessica Gonzales at (619) 699-1950.

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