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New SANDAG Report Finds Regional Unemployment Rate Falls to 14.3%

July 8, 2020 --Unemployment Rate Likely to Rise Following Latest Health Crisis Developments
 
The SANDAG Data Science and Analytics team continues to examine and analyze local and state employment data that indicates a decrease in unemployment rates as San Diego businesses have reopened.
 
However, the report, COVID-19 Impact on the San Diego Regional Economy: Employment Analysis, warns that the recent improvement in regional unemployment rates could be short-lived with increases in COVID-19 cases leading to a reversal in reopening.
 
“The recent rollbacks in opening could significantly impact the food and beverage industry,” said SANDAG Chief Economist Ray Major. “Additionally, we could see another wave of layoffs as funding from Paycheck Protection Program loans is exhausted.”
 
The industries most impacted by the recent public health order on July 6 (restaurants, bars, breweries, wineries, movie theaters, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums, and card rooms) represent more than 160,000 jobs or 11% of the region’s pre-COVID employment.  
 
The report shows how the unemployment rate has changed over time during the pandemic. While it took less than two months for unemployment to increase eightfold, it will take much longer for the unemployment rate to recover, especially if the full reopening of the economy needs to be further delayed to protect public health.  
 
The report also shows the geographical distribution of lost jobs and calculates unemployment rates for the five most impacted ZIP Codes regionwide, including Encanto, College Area, City Heights, San Ysidro, and Logan Heights. Only Logan Heights is estimated to still have an unemployment rate above 20%. The five ZIP Codes least affected, with unemployment rates just over 10%, are Carmel Valley, Del Mar, Rancho Santa Fe, Chula Vista NE, and Rancho Bernardo W.
 
“This data can help inform local leaders as they continue to plan our region’s recovery,” said SANDAG Executive Director Hasan Ikhrata. “As the forum that brings together elected officials and leaders from throughout the San Diego region, SANDAG is in a unique position to analyze this data and to develop reports and economic forecasts.”
 
Applied Geographic Solutions, Inc. provided data for this report. It includes estimates through June 27. This report also used California Employment Development Department LMI data.
 
To see the full SANDAG report, COVID-19 Impact on the San Diego Regional Economy: Employment Analysis, visit sandag.org/economicimpact. 

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