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Growth Forecasts

Series 11: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update - Historical Projection

The Series 11: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast Update was adopted by the SANDAG Board of Directors on September 8, 2006.  The 2030 growth forecast update is based on the best available information on population, housing, and employment trends available when the forecast was being developed.  On average historically, the SANDAG regional growth forecast has been accurate within +/- 0.4 percent of actual annual counts for population, housing, and employment.

Between the years 2004 and 2030, the San Diego region will grow by approximately one million people, 290,000 new homes and roughly half a million jobs. Although one million people represents a significant amount of growth, the region’s growth rate has actually slowed over the last decade and that pattern will continue. In fact, by the early 2020's, our annual rate of growth is expected to fall below one percent.

As is the case today, population growth is expected to continue to outpace home construction. Over time, this imbalance will result in an increase in household size (the number of persons per household), a decrease in vacancy rates, and an increase in the amount of interregional commuting, primarily from southwestern Riverside County and northern Baja California.

It is important to note that the 2030 growth forecast update is not a prescription for the future. It simply portrays the likely outcomes if we continue operating under our current plans and policies.