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Growth Forecasts

Series 10: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast - Historical Projection

The Series 10: 2030 Regional Growth Forecast was adopted by the SANDAG Board of Directors on December 19, 2003. It represented the best assessment of the changes SANDAG anticipated for the region and its communities through 2030 based on the most current information and computer models available at the time. The estimates were intended to help policy and decision makers prepare for the future and are not an expression for or against growth.

This forecast, like the two forecasts that preceded it, included some assumptions regarding how local general and community plans might evolve over time in response to continuing job and population growth.  It had been apparent since the mid-1990s that local land use plans and policies, in aggregate, were not able to support the long-range economic and population growth that was anticipated for the region through 2030. In part, this was because the local plans typically had a shorter horizon year than the forecast.  In order to alleviate the burden, the jurisdictions were asked to identify areas within their planning boundaries where they thought future smart growth development and redevelopment would be appropriate. 

Although this process resulted in some additional capacity for housing units within the region’s boundaries, it was insufficient to stem interregional commuting. The 2030 growth forecast indicated that over time, an increasing number of people would opt to work within the region, but live outside its boundaries. It was estimated by 2030 approximately 47,000 additional households would be, in effect, “exported,” mostly to southwestern Riverside County and northern Baja California.